Market Scheming Blog has moved - Economic, Fundamental, and Technical Analysis

Market Scheming Blog has moved - Economic, Fundamental, and Technical Analysis
New Blog - Check it out http://marketscheming.com

S&P500 breaks out of triangle November 17th 2011

Will the move be confirmed?  That is the question but a clear breakdown in the S&P 500 occurred today.

Trade with caution, Europe is by far from solved.  The US "supercommittee" has failed until now to agree on a solution.  China has stood its ground on many issues, demonstrating a shift of power to the east.  Japan is continuing to print to keep the Yen from appreciating.     

The purple line is where I see as a huge level.

See   Long term forecast For an explanation of the significance

S&P500 In a Triangle - Options Expiration Week - Beware of Volitility

S&P500 Hourly Chart

With momentum (MACD) waning, watch for increase in volatility as the market works out of this triangle.  The move will be explosive either way.

Google Analytics | New Feature: Visitor Flow

Interesting new feature I found on Google Analytics.  For businesses, this could be used to target adwords keywords / build advertisements for each region.

S&P500 Drops after LCH hikes Margins on Italy Bonds

UPDATE: Italian Bonds Sink As LCH.Clearnet Ups Margin Calls
From the Wall Street Journal 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond soared by 45 basis points to 7.12%, according to Tradeweb, above the psychological 7% mark that prompted Greece, Ireland, and Portugal to seek external assistance as funding costs became unsustainable.

Yamana Gold (TSX: YRI) (NYSE: AUY) - Q3 Results released 11/2/2011

Yamana Gold (TSX: YRI)  (NYSE: AUY) - Q3 Results released 11/2/2011

Highlights: Yamana Gold Announces Third Quarter 2011 Results

• REVENUE INCREASES 22%
• OPERATING CASH FLOW INCREASES 57%
• RECORD ADJUSTED EARNINGS INCREASES 63% 

Yamana Gold CEO Peter Marrone said:

“We continued to focus on delivering growth across all measures, enhancing shareholder value and generating significant cash flow in the third quarter,” 

 Production Highlights:

The miner sold 214,980 ounces of gold, 2.6 million ounces of silver and 38.7 million pounds of copper in the quarter compared with 217,094 ounces of gold from continuing operations, 2.5 million ounces of silver and 43.5 million pounds of copper from continuing operations a year ago.

 Dividend Highlights

The gold miner said it would now pay a quarterly dividend of 5 cents per share, up from 4.5 cents last month and 3 cents in April.

---

EURUSD Short term Triangle - Technical Analysis - November 2, 2011 12:52 AM EST

I would not be surprised to see this triangle breakdown and make a run for short term lows.  No news is bullish for the EURO, the deal that was reached last week to save the Eurozone has been tossed out the window with the Greek Referendum called.  No one can expect a country that is being squeezed by an economic slowdown along withe riots and crippling strikes, will vote for more pain in the short run.

Gold holds as market tumbles on Greek Referendum

The stock market dropped dramatically in the morning, bounced then sold off near the end of day.  S&P500 down 2.79%.  Gold however held up very well, selling with risk off mood but bought up on the dip showing the bulls are back in control of this market.  It isn't surprising that gold is catching a bid while other risk assets tumbled.  With Yen intervention Sunday (Sharp 5% jump) Night and Greek Referendum (over 3% drop in Euro) called today, major currency are at risk of volatile moves.

Continue to watch gold as the US will be entering debt discussions shortly to find ways to trim its deficit.

Note the volume is above average and bearish.  This market is in trouble with breaks of 121 on the SPY.

GLD intra-day Nov 1 2011 - Triangle breakdown - saved by VWAP

Triangle break was down, but so far it appears the VWAP is saving the price action from falling lower.

Reality sets in (at least in the short run) - S&P500 down over 2.2%, Eurusd collaspes

Anyone that participated in that ridiculous rally on the news that the Eurozone is "saved" have just got served.  The price action has moved sharply lower.  This Candle stick pattern some what fits the classic Evening Star

  

The EURUSD has led that collapse as Greece have been discussing a potential referendum on the current plan.  Judging by the number of violent riots and strikes I highly doubt the referendum will pass with flying colours.

USDJPY jumps over 3.5% on Yen intervention - Forex madness continues

You haven't seen a chart like this in a while.... Yen intervention underway, pushing the USD/JPY up 3.5% +.
The Forex madness continues....

---

UPDATE: 1AM EST

The first picture was at around 10pm October 30th, 2011, where the USD/JPY was trading at 78.512.
At 1am October 31st, 2011 USD/JPY is standing at 79.199.  The strange part is that the price action has just went dead for the past couple of hours.

Zerohedge speculated that we have see the next currency peg we have seen recently (SNB with the EURCHF being the first).  From the Article: Please Welcome The Latest Currency Peg

"For the last 45 minutes, USDJPY has been unable to shake loose of 79.2 by more than a pip or two. Following the SNB and their efforts with EURCHF, which as far as we recall is technically pegged at 1.20, is Azumi now pushing another of our freely floating foreign exchange currencies to a peg, as he soaks up any and all USDJPY offers under 79.20?"

From the Bloomberg Article : Yen Drops on Intervention; Aussie Weakens

"The yen sank 4.5 percent to 79.20 per dollar as of 1:25 p.m. in Tokyo after climbing to a record 75.35 earlier today. The Australian dollar dropped 1.6 percent. The dollar-denominated MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 2.8 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.7 percent. Copper sank as much as 3.7 percent in London, gold dropped 1.4 percent, and oil retreated 0.8 percent in New York"

EURUSD Plunges on news that MF Global is nearing bankruptcy

5 min chart, as you can see Eur/Usd just woke up to negative this Sunday.  The pair has continued to drop since this screen shot.

For an updated chart check out: freestockcharts.com

From Zerohedge / Bloomberg

• CLEARINGHOUSES SAID TO PREPARE FOR MF BANKRUPTCY, WSJ SAYS
• US REGULATORS ALSO PREPARE FOR MF BANKRUPTCY, RESTRUCTURE: WSJ

EuroSummit Over EURUSD Chart almost at 61.8% of August peak

Tough resistance above for the EURUSD.

The EuroZone Plan of 1 Trillion Euro EFSF seems smaller than the market has priced in.
The 50% hair cut of Greek debt was a given.

Yamana Gold (TSX: YRI) (NYSE: AUY) - 10/26/2011 - Unusual move, likely flushed out weak hands

Yamana Gold (TSX: YRI)  (NYSE: AUY) - 10/26/2011

Research done by Andrea Kramer on Schaeffer's Options Center

Article: Unusual Call Activity on BP, STP, AUY, and CMI - 10/26/2011 10:29:36 AM

"Moving on, AUY followed gold futures into the black yesterday, attracting a bevy of bullish option bettors in the process. Garnering notable attention was the near-the-money January 2012 16-strike call, which saw close to 4,250 contracts change hands. The bulk of the volume traded at the ask price, and call open interest at the LEAPS strike ballooned overnight, pointing to newly bought bullish bets. In early trading, AUY has tacked on another 1.7% to explore the $15.77 region."

Andrea was referencing this spike in volume for the 2012 Jan 21 16.00 Call for Yamana Gold Inc.


 Yamana Gold's Thrid Quarter results will be coming out November 2, 2011 after close. 

TORONTO , Oct. 4, 2011 /CNW/ - YAMANA GOLD INC. (TSX:YRI; NYSE:AUY; LSE:YAU) today announced that its third quarter 2011 results will be released after market close on November 2, 2011 followed by a conference call and webcast on November 3, 2011 at 11:00 a.m. ET . 

 Press release PDF download

---

Correlation breakdown SPY vs GLD: Repeat of August 2011?

During the market crash in August 2011, gold found its place as a reserve asset as the USD was under fire due to a lack of a debt agreement.  It appears that from the latest move in gold and S&P500 that this reserve / safe haven status is returning.  With the market dropping almost 2% today and gold rallying almost 3% the lock step correlation over the past 2-3 months appears to have broke down. 

The next few days will be key to determining where these asset classes will go next.

Alexco Resources - Bullish outlook on strong move in silver $AXR 4.8%

On of the regular stocks that I follow is Alexco Resources.  AXR.TO.

Using a fib fan to draw the cyan lines.  It is obvious how these lines played their role in how the price action has moved over the past 4-5 months.

Today The 4.8% break out above the 200 and 50 daily moving average.  Look for confirmation tomorrow if there is a close above the 7.75 level we could be in for a resumed medium term uptrend.

EURUSD Short Term (15-min candles) Technical Analysis -

EURUSD Short Term Technical Analysis

Short term it looks like the oscillators are  rolling over.
  Next resistance is at  200 period moving average at 1.3865 to 1.3870

Correlation breakdown at end of day: SLV (silver) and SPY (S&P 500)

I have been a believer in some form of correlation breakdown between metals and the stock market during a rapid decline.  However, it appears SLV and GLD have traded down with the market recently.   However, something happened at the end of the day Monday October 17th, 2011.  Just after 3:30pm, SLV had a nice rally into close as the SPY sold off to close near the lows of the day. 

You can see that silver has continued to trade slightly up as the Hong Kong exchange opened.
As it still seems that metals and the SPY are functions of the USD, until central banks (in the east most likely) start to buy gold / silver on equity sell offs, SLV and SPY will probably continue to trade up and down roughly together.

EUR/USD review - Options Expiration Week watch for Volatility

Watch for breaks of the above indicated levels of support.  EuroZone has 1 week to deliver a collective solution to tame fears of a global recession.

From Bloomberg: G-20 Tells Europe to Deal Decisively with Debt Crisis at Oct-23 Summit

European officials “will have left Paris under no misunderstanding that there is a huge amount of pressure on them to deliver a solution,” U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne told reporters. Next weekend “is the moment people are expecting something quite impressive.”

Options Expiration Week

Keep a close watch on the VIX

Economic Events Calendar from Bloomberg 

S&P Downgrades Spain from AA to AA-. EUR/USD Topping?

With Spain just downgraded from AA to AA-, is it time for this run up in EUR/USD to give way in the short term at least.

Wall Street Journal provides an overview of this event:

-- S&P drops Spain to AA-, three notches below top AAA rating, with a negative outlook
-- Cites banking sector risks, says labor market reforms needed
-- Move follows Fitch's downgrade of Spain last week; Moody's could be next