Nat gas prediction

I have not touched nat gas for a while.
Looking at the charts I see a very interesting pattern.

the triangle was broken to the downside.  The channel it has been trading in between the cyan and purple lines should provide support resistance well. That is why i expect a pop in prices to the 5.60-5.70 area on the HNU then a break down with that triangle providing strong resistance.  However any break down below the Cyan line will be shorting opportunity for Nat Gas.

Volume seems to favor bears right now with heavy volume dumping this.
The slow stoch is oversold so expect a pop at some point and a logical place is right now after the first bounce off the cyan line.

The MACD has a less negative tick meaning there may be a small turning point in momentum possibly to test the target range of 5.60-5.70.

This is what i would consider a low risk trade since a stop loss just below the cyan line will provide a no brainer exit point.  and the upside potentional is pretty good.  However this chart is bearish and you would be playing a bounce.   When this peaks and if it bounces off that bottom triangle trend line, it could be a good time to load up on HND.

Andrew's Pitchfork!

I am going to attempt to use a study I have not used before.  I used this site to understand how to set up the fork.  http://help.geckosoftware.com/40manual/new/advchart_tools/andrews_pitch/andrew_pitchfork.htm

From the last move corrective move in the S&P an ABC can be drawn, then the fork is setup providing another reason why until we get back up and over that bottom Pitchfork line it would be hard to be bullish in the long term.  In the theory site i posted the last picture at the bottom shows projections, which are identical channels that are mapped out below the current channels that are drawn.  If the S&P bounces off the lower line again it would be safe to say we entered that new channel for at least a test of the bottom of the new channel.  

I have added now a down channel of andrews pitchfork, to the drawing as you can see the push today stopped at almost exactly on to what is draw out, so a close above the new down channel would mean a possible drive up but it will have heavy resistance from the lower trend line of the previous pitchfork.

Also note that volume seems like it dropped off when the trading range was in the upper range versus the volume in the lower trading ranges.

I don't really know how to use this study but if i have set if up correctly, it seems to provide some interesting insight. 

S&P patterns and predictions

So here is my doom and gloom view of the charts Top chart is a close up of current situation and where break downs are likely to occur.  And the Bottom chart is the overall picture of our situation dated back to the beginning of this bull market.

I am going to call this Head and shoulders pattern on the purple line being the neck tie.  The right shoulder could get to the 200 MA or it could keen at the 20 MA or even the light blue triangle top.  But when it breakdown if the purple line is broken the S&P should be droping close to 1000- 1020 range.  May be lower.  These are key trends coming to an end.  If the s&p moves up it will likely mover to the 1130 area before meeting heavy resistances.
The Slow stock is just on 20 so barely oversold.   but MACD is showing a slight change in momentum.  So I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more upside before we begin to break down again.

On the longer term chart, you can see if the yellow line breaks then we are in that previous head and shoulders breakage range in early July.  That would then become quite strong resistance.  A break of the white neck tie I would call as the new Head and shouders pattern with the right shoulder being completed again.  The A wave correction could have been a zig zag ABC, then the start of the B wave was the most recent top and the C wave should be lower than the A wave which would be 950 range.

So expect this market to break down.  Some interesting news that will be coming out that might have a very large impact on the markets if they revise it is the GDP numbers.  This happens on the 28th of this month.  So keep your eyes peeled for this news.

FVI on the TSX

Interesting chart.

It broke out of the triangle and through the 20 MA, if the 200 MA now becomes strong support, the expanding triange would be the next logical target. I don't have this stock but i might look for a position when it starts to bounce off the 200 M


Another low low cap is impact , ipt on the tsx ventures.
The chart is a bit busy but for a reason.

This stock could be breaking out to new highs if it can continue breaking the 50 and 200 MA. I am watching for breaks up and probably going to trade them.

ELD on the tsx I also have a option on, for a 21 strike price.  It expires friday so the likelihood I will be losing on this, but there is a small potential I may be able to cut some losses on looking at the current chart.

A break out of that triangle, that is drawn could result in a spike up to the bollinger band. and maybe to the 19.60 range where i might be able to cut some losses.

Silver and gold update

Silver chart i have below is pretty interesting, it has cleared all move averages and is about to break either up or down from this triangle it is.

the slow stoch is not over bought,, and the macd just upticked, I see a logical target to a be at about 20.25 to 20.45
o much it might bring down silver as it is a industrial / precious metal.

we will see if the stocks market tanks to

looking at gold long term and short.

Seems like in a really good position.  bounce off the 200 MA and now up and above the 50 and the 20 MA. And held above the 61.8% retracement o the last down leg.
a break out over the 100% retracement and the up channel top that it is trading in, would have a target of 127.50.  so over the next 2-3 weeks we will see if it continues up or break down shortly.

 

Trip to BC, Update on all positions and call for silver

With exams and traveling to bc over, i wanted to update my positions and silver call.

1) Silver call:

This is to show the triangle and the enviable break out up or down.  

On the Daily chart, the gap up today and it has held off staying in that area.   That gap probably will be filled then a takeoff.  The MACD has a strong uptick over the previous day, The Slow stoch has crossed over, and it is not over bought.The volume is up for the day as well. All moving averages are below the price, and the 38.2% retracement.




So I think a pop is pretty close some time this week if it breaks out of the triangle the price could go up to about the 18.39 mark, then to the 19.41.  


look at todays action: 

2) Ford update, the B wave called in previous posts is coming to an end.  The drop in the markets provided this drop, so a target in and around 8.05- 9.50

3) silver plays and entries

AXR entry 3.23, looks like it could pop up and over that 200 MA any day.  IT just broke out of that triangle and if it can hold that we could get to about 3.50 - 3.65, then a test of the 4.00 mark. 

FR entry 4.15, and a 6% gain so far today.  a break of the 4.50ish area could be very bullish.








BEWARE.... Options expiration week, I expect crazy volatility.   

Ford UPDATE!

Ford is interesting,  I put up an elliot wave count a few weeks back.  And it looks like the resistance level I tossed up worked out pretty well. I have adjusted the graph a bit but just changed the Angle of the possible C wave.

Again I don't claim to know much about elliot wave so I am strictly experimenting on how it works.

here is the 12345 ABC count

This could be a text book 12345 with a ABC correction.
First note that the A wave was a 38.2% retracement almost exactly.  This gives the C wave of a potential of a 68.1% retracement but another 38.2% at the least.


Now to a close up. Here I will postulate that we are ending the B wave shortly and the C wave will occur.
Some indicators are starting to show bearish signs.

Before I look at other indicators, just note what happen a few days back, we GAP up and over the bollinger bands... which means it has a very low chance of staying above that band for much longer and the Gap should be filled at some point.

Looking at the MACD today, the histogram has now had a lower tick than yesterday.  It is still bullish until the crossover but the momentum is slowing down.

The Slow stoach is over bought, and momentum has changed as there is a cross over.  I will say that this indicator was very bullish  as it locked in the previous trend.  however, it can not stay over bought for ever.

And volume the past 4-5 days has been declining as well.  This could indicate weakening of the bull position.

Next lets look at the gap again.

I tossed on the retracement of the A wave to get an idea of where the B wave might end.  If the bollinger band holds, you could see the price pull below the 61.8% retracement which could become strong resistance.