Market Scheming

Thursday, September 16, 2010

EDR - Indicators confirm potential breakout

I came across this article on EDR.  It was released in early July when the quarterly results were published.  I have been looking for information on a Mining company that is growing their production of silver.  I believe all silver / gold mining companies will have a strong move up, however, the stocks that will do very well will be the ones that have full scaled production so they can start showing actually cash flow sooner rather than just an increase in assets from their estimated resources appreciating.

"EDR is a small-cap silver mining company focused on the growth of its silver production, reserves and resources in Mexico. Since its startup in 2004, Endeavour has posted five consecutive years of growing silver production and resources. The organic expansion programs now underway at Endeavour's two operating silver mines in Mexico combined with its strategic acquisition and exploration programs should help Endeavour achieve its goal to become the next premier mid-tier silver mining company."

Below is the weekly chart with each indicator explained. 

The Slow Stochastics shows momentum is up but the stock is currently overbought.  It will be shown with the other indicators that this overbought condition will probably become embedded where the yellow and white line stay about the 80 line for an extended period of time.


The MACD on the weekly is super bullish.  The momentum is pointing up, the histogram has just turned positive, and the MACD line is over the zero mark.  This shows me that their is strong momentum behind this move which means that their is a higher chance for the Slow Stoch to embed.


I mentioned in a previous post I was going to start looking into the ADX and -/+ DI indicator.  It is very interesting.  The yellow line represents how strong the trend is and the cross overs of the +DI (Green Line) and -DI (Red Line) serve as possible buy and sell opportunities.   The standard parameters are 14 (smooth) , 10 (DI period).  In that configuration when the yellow line gets above the 20 line, it indicates a strong trend has formed in the direction of what ever DI is on top.  I read about a more accurate setup which is the 13 / 8 setup where the strong trend of the yellow line forms at 25.  As you can see the stock has just broken the 25 mark, in addition to this there was a buy signal (green line crossed over the red) in July. 

So from this indicator you can see which trend is in action and how strong the trend is.  This is a very interesting inductor I will probably continue to use it as a filter for my trading.

Volume and projections

Volume in last December was very strong and since then the price action has remained flat above the 200 MA and the volume has started to decrease. With this sudden move in price action the past three weeks i suspect that more buy volume will enter the markets potentially taking this stock to new highs.

Elliot wave count i have as this is a start of wave 3.  Wave 2 is clearly a triangle and we are in the third week of breaking out of this triangle.  In previous graphs it can be seen that wave 2 was a standard 38.2% retracement of wave 1.  The projections are 100% or 161.8% of wave 1 from the bottom of wave 2.  This would take us to  6.90 or 9.12 dollars respectively. 

I have purchased this stock, with the weekly technicals lined up so well and with the silver price continuing to move up, this stock is poised for a strong wave 3.



Going to the daily, you can see that the Slow stoch is probably going to embed, and the macd is positive with larger positive tick on the histogram than yesterday.  I could even count the daily as we are entering a wave 3.  The first wave started back in August 24th.  A move up past the $5 mark is highly likely. 

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