The daily is above, I believe the level we are attempting to break is critical, as in April the price retreated from this level, and more recently we have tested this level a few times. If this level fails to break, and price action gets below some of those moving averages this currency pair could be in trouble. Also the correlation of the S&P 500 and this pair has been demonstrated in previous posts, but simply look what occurred during the may flash crash.
A hourly view allows is to see the recent tests of the level 82.75 level. Currently we have broken the 20 MA hourly. If we continue down over night expect the S&P 500 to start lower on the day.
The European issues have not been settled. The Irish bailout is still in talks, however, with today's rally and dollar drop it would be expected to see the EUR/USD up.
One thing I wanted to note on this chart is the MACD has just crossed the 0 level today. This generally signals mid-term bearishness so look for a retest of that level. If it holds more downward movement would be expected. Again, looking at the level in price action in April the top coincides with level we are battling.
The slow stoch would be good to look at, any breaks below the recent low would be a sign for continued selling and a shift in momentum.
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