This is an hourly chart of the S&P 500.
The fibs from the highs to the lows show that the short term target if this continues down will be a test of the 1300 level.
The main thing to observe is the extremely strong down move in the last bar of the March 28th, 2011 trading. As you can see there was a break of the trend line. Tomorrow a fast move could occur in the morning to the 1295-1300.
This is the possible scenario I am currently expecting. At that juncture, I don't know what will happen. If there is a bounce it could be a significant bottom in the next rally up. or break through the 200 MA on strong volume and continue lower throughout the summer.
The technicals are still quite bearish especially on the hourly chart. On the daily the stock is overbought and MACD is still holding under the 0 level indicating the intermediate trend is still bearish.
I bought call options on SDS which is 2x bear ETF before the S&P500 broke above the 20/50 day MA. These are for April 19th, and expect that things will roll over again to test new short term low.
UPDATE: 1 minute SPY chart - Pay attention to the volume in the last 30 minutes.
Who's side do you want to be on? The people with the money or the people that were buying between 12pm and 3pm?
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