S&P long term outlook

This is a more speculative post.

I want to have a record of this call in case this situation emerges.

Lets look at a 7 day chart of the S&P dating back 1997.

Notice this LONG term head and shoulders pattern that has emerged.  The neck line is around 630ish in 2011.  This could be a logical place to bounce as it has before or if this breaks I am not sure how the market will look.  Notice the magnitude of the right shoulder and how close it is to the Head and notice the right shouder and how possibly it could be much smaller.  To me that would indicate a sharp move regardless.

A closer look at the complex tops of the head and shoulders.  Just like the break down in 2007 - 2008 if this Head and shoulders doesn't  not break to the up side a sharp drop could occur as we complete the right shoulder.  There could be a drop a retest of the neck line a pop up and then a final drop as well.

The Weekly MA don't look good, we are testing the 50 / right now and we found resistance before on the 20.  Unless we can break above 2 Moving averages and the top part of the triangle drawn this market could be in full blown downturn.  It seems like the 1100 mark could be the decider of this battle.  It is technically important and psychologically significant. 

Weekly with techincal indicators. it looks like the Slow Stoch could roll over signaling a downturn in momentum. however the MACD is slightly less negative so pay attention to a cross over or a divergence soon.  Falling volume for sure, and with this you can see the Moving averages a bit better fighting with the price action.

The daily shows where we are today.  Two days in a row the S&P has come to that 1100 level and pulled back.  The Purple line is a Andrews pitchfork channel that I think is helping hold up the market.
Breaks below the 1070 area and again at the 1050 area could be significant.  This triangle will come to an end and we will either be up or down.


Remember tomorrow is the Jobloss claims.  If it is bad, selling will kick in if it is good or neutral the market might break up.