Market Scheming

Friday, July 16, 2010

Playing the posisble Nasdaq roll over

.UPDATE 1:
When you are right you are right.  Huge gap down on these ETF, so much that I missed my entry because I had too tight of an entry point, I set it at $12  max, but on open it gapped up to 12.10. I ended up getting into the trade at $12.36, I had chances to get in early but didn't know how to enter. How ever the etc closed at 12.61 so that was a health gain, considering these markets should continue to head down next week. I will keep updating this trade, I will probably be adding to this position or an S&P ETF.




So I started looking into the Nasdaq and below is what i was seeing.
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Volume:
Below average, this large up move doesn't have much weight behind it right now.

Slow Stoch
Over bought, and starting to roll over

MACD
Starting to flatten out, expect a signal line cross over late next week

Resistance
There is the 200 day MA, the 38.2 fib retractment value, and I trend line that I have drawn on the chart in purple.
With these 3 resistance barriers, the past two days of flat price action makes alot of sense.


The trade
Using a horizon beta pro ETF for the nasdaq bull: HQD (it is an inverse ETF, so it goes up when the nasdaq goes down)



Entry:
Anywhere below the $12.00 would be ideal.
Stop Loss:
I think there needs to be a bit of room for the stop loss, I am thinking of the 11.64 mark which is 36cent below the entry, however there may still be a move to the upside next week before continuing a upside.
Exit:
12.50 to be conservative since it is the 50 MA, but I think it will bounce through these levels pretty easily until 61.8 retractment

I might trade this see what happens. I will update when I have more information

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