Playing the posisble Nasdaq roll over

.UPDATE 1:
When you are right you are right.  Huge gap down on these ETF, so much that I missed my entry because I had too tight of an entry point, I set it at $12  max, but on open it gapped up to 12.10. I ended up getting into the trade at $12.36, I had chances to get in early but didn't know how to enter. How ever the etc closed at 12.61 so that was a health gain, considering these markets should continue to head down next week. I will keep updating this trade, I will probably be adding to this position or an S&P ETF.




So I started looking into the Nasdaq and below is what i was seeing.
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Volume:
Below average, this large up move doesn't have much weight behind it right now.

Slow Stoch
Over bought, and starting to roll over

MACD
Starting to flatten out, expect a signal line cross over late next week

Resistance
There is the 200 day MA, the 38.2 fib retractment value, and I trend line that I have drawn on the chart in purple.
With these 3 resistance barriers, the past two days of flat price action makes alot of sense.


The trade
Using a horizon beta pro ETF for the nasdaq bull: HQD (it is an inverse ETF, so it goes up when the nasdaq goes down)

Entry:
Anywhere below the $12.00 would be ideal.
Stop Loss:
I think there needs to be a bit of room for the stop loss, I am thinking of the 11.64 mark which is 36cent below the entry, however there may still be a move to the upside next week before continuing a upside.
Exit:
12.50 to be conservative since it is the 50 MA, but I think it will bounce through these levels pretty easily until 61.8 retractment

I might trade this see what happens. I will update when I have more information

NAT Gas possible buy entry

Nat Gas has now worked its way down to the lower end of the trading channel I have mentioned previously.

Let get right into the trade:

Volume:

The downside volume is quite weak for the past 3 days.  This could signal a weakening in the bears ability to keep prices going lower.

MACD:
It is not shown on the chart but remains very bearish.  This signals to me that we have not seen the bottom yet even if there is 1-2 up days we might ultimately go lower.

Slow Stoch:

OVER SOLD !  This is why the buying opportunity is almost upon us.  The slow stoch has been over sold for a while now and at some point it should start turning the momentum to the upside.

Trading channel:

We are at the lower end of this channel that is marked by the yellow and purple lines.  I expect a bounce around that level, one more down day could occur or we could go down to that level inter-day and bounce.

Fundmentals:

Weather has been decently hot, and tomorrow there is the nat gas announcement.  There are alot of bulls itching the get into the long side, so if the numbers come in not that great we might see a move tomorrow to the upside.

The Trade:

Entry: Ideally wait for the stock to get closer to the yellow line ($5.13), The closer it gets the less risky the trade will end up being.  But the announcement tomorrow could end up pushing the stock higher if the numbers are terrible.  So waiting to long may end up with a missed chance.  I don't believe I will be considering the trade until tomorrow is over.   Thursday are unpredictable lately.

Exit: Ideally again would be the purple line, but I would adjust my stop loss up to just below the $5.77 area when / if it breaches it.  That level may prove to be too much for a breach so conservatively an exit there would make sense.

Stop loss:
Simply a few cent below the 5.13 level, I would say, $5.00 since that was the most recent low.   But another approach would be to keep a tight stop loss at 5.10, and then attempt to re-enter if the stock price ends up going above the 5.13 level again.


UPDATE 1:

I was pretty happy about the above analysis.  I did however expected it to go down a bit more, but regardless the trade worked out.  See the graph below.

The MACD is coming together will probably signal a cross over early next week.
 The slow stoch has crossed over and trying to get out of the over sold condition.
Where did the move find support? The purple line that I drew yesterday, it was the 38.2 retractment.
There is still upside but the big move was made today.