S&P Elliot Wave analysis - Irregular Correction & EUR/USD divergence

I will start off with mentioning some videos that have provided an interesting count.



Target guidelines from the following was used:
http://www.esignalcentral.com/university/get/getManual/eSignal_Manual_ch9.pdf

Starting with a longer term chart

So Above is the daily chart.  It is a bit hectic, however, I didn't want to erase everything when zooming out.
Man thing to note is where we are in the wave count at this scale.   August 2010  terminated Wave 1.  I did some research on Andrew's Pitchfork  Video of action / reaction lines Here

Based on pitchfork time projection, mixed with Fib levels and elliot wave, a short term projected target of 1145 - 1155.  The big red dot.

Wave yellow B touched the 61.8% retractment of the breakdown of the markets in 2008.  This point a short term top, in my opinion until it is taken out. 

Once Wave 4 completes, wave 5 should go to modest new highs before terminating, leading the way for a strong down move in the indexes.

Closer look at the price target on a hourly chart.

On the shorter term count, the cyan count seems to have terminated, making the high 1235.

With a clear impulse wave down off the 1235 mark, the correction can be seen showing a bearish divergence.

So to sum it up, we might be about to continue a 4 wave down on longer term chart.  Which means news highs are expected, by next February.  Price target of 1255-1260 on the wave 5 up.
On the shorter term, it appears our irregular correction has just put in a B wave.  This means we have entered into a C wave down that should take out the A Wave at 1175.  With the target of 1145-1155 this price target is also 1.62 x Wave A which satisfies the fib targets of a Wave C.

From the PDF above on Elliot wave here is a picture of a irregular flat.

See more here

Just a EUR/USD update.  Bearish Divergence based on the purple lines.
Expect to see the Euro fall against the greenback.  Price should breach 1.26 if the divergence is to play out.

S&P 500 - December 7th, 2010

Weekly chart of the S&P 500: Interactive Charts powered by freestockcharts.com

Hello 61.8% retracement.  Today candle stick pattern was a Shooting Star

Lets attempt to overlay some Elliot wave

A bearish candle, off a 61.8% retractment is interesting.  Tomorrow look for confirmation.

On the monthly, it is always nice to see where we are currently over the longer term.

Why Economics Matters by Satnam Lehal

New Palgrave Economics Writing Prize Winner 2008–9

We are very proud and happy to announce the winner of our competition launched in association with the Financial Times and the London School of Economics– ‘Why Economics Matters.’ Satnam Lehal, 31, a graduate of Oxford and Cambridge Universities who works in financial services, won the £1000 prize this year. For more information and updates about future competitions, please keep coming back to this site.

Why Economics Matters by Satnam Lehal

Located on this site: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics


"The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (2008), 2nd Edition, is an eight-volume reference work, edited by Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. It contains 5.8 million words and spans 7,680 pages with 1,872 articles. Included are 1057 new articles and, from earlier, 80 "classic" essays, 157 revised articles, and 550 edited articles. It is the product of 1,506 contributors, including 25 Nobel Laureates in Economics. It is also available in a searchable, hyperlinked online version with added content from quarterly updates. The publisher is Palgrave Macmillan. The first edition, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics (1987), was published in four volumes.^[1][2] Institutional access to full-text online articles for both editions is available by subscription.^[3]  "

Wikipedia: The New Palgrave

GOLD hits new all time high, Sabina Gold & Silver SBB on TSX news release

Today a new high was made in gold.  Impressive yes, unexpected not really.  This commodities will continue to rise as long as USD is being hammered and the world is fearing a breakdown in Euro zone.

I have mentioned previously that my strategy for markets right now, is when I am feeling bullish I long gold / silver mining stocks, some of these that have done extremely well are: AXR, FR, SBB, GPR, FVI, EDR.
If I am feeling bearish I just stick to inverse ETF to short the stock markets.

Currently, I am holding only SBB, with a Buy - stop on FVI at 4.64
I also mentioned previously that the $5 stock range is interesting, as it seems that additional investors get involved after this price level is breached for junior mining companies.

Daily chart of SBB below

Some strong volume has recently entered the market as you can see last week there was a massive increase in the price.  I picked up on the pull back.

What is excited is a release at 4:20pm after market close from Sabina Gold and Silver corp on the final 2010 reading for their mining properties.

Here is the Article from marketwire

Also the report from the company website 

The highlights are the following

"Hole 10GSE136 returns 8.74 g/t Au over 79.9m including 45.20 g/t Au over 6.0m and 25.27 g/t Au over 4.9m

Hole 10GSE140B returns 18.95 g/t Au over 4.35m and 26.43 g/t Au over 2.9m"

Based on previous results for the same property these are significant results.  This stock will be very interesting to watch this week.

Also they have targeted potential drilling targets for their 2011 exploration program.

Source: Sabina News Release Dec 6th, 2010