Market Scheming

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Is it Wheat's Time? DAG ETN Analysis | Agriculture Sector poised to make a move | QE3 likely to push the agricultural sector higher

Read an interesting article name: A recipe for CWB failure
CWB referring to the Canadian Wheat Board, and the mention of failure relates to the Vote on September 9th, 2011.

From the Article:
The CWB's board of directors will respect the results of this plebiscite. If a majority of farmers wants to end the single desk for barley or wheat, we will actively support the transition to an open market. I am calling on Minister Gerry Ritz and the Government of Canada to also respect farmers' wishes. 
Another piece of interesting news in the agricultural space: Crop year a difficult one says CWB president by Glen Hallick.

From the Article:

"The 2010 growing season saw record rainfall levels that left millions of unseeded acres, leaving a small crop with one of the lowest quality profiles we've ever faced," White said. "This was frustrating for farmers and posed difficult marketing challenges, made worse by grain-movement issues that stalled farmer deliveries and affected the supply chain for much of the year."
...
Overall all-wheat production grown in the 2010-2011 crop year was down by 3.3 MT to 21 MT. Meanwhile all-barley production declined by 1.9 MT to seven MT.
The CWB forecast for 2011-2012 calls for 17.4 MT of wheat, 3.9 MT of durum and 8 MT of barley. The prediction includes the estimated six million acres that went unseeded this year because of spring flooding.

DAG - 2x Bull ETN - Agriculture - Wheat, Corn, Sugar, Soybean

I am looking at the next pull back as an entry opportunity.  The three standard correction are on the chart above.  Most likely the 38.2% retracement level is what we will see within the next couple of weeks if the top is truly in. If not, these levels will need to be recalculated.  The MACD looks to be rounding off signally a slight pull back.

A very bullish chart is the Weekly DAG


Hence why any pull back will be an excellent low risk high reward trade entry.  If this is the beginning of a new up-leg much higher prices in the agricultural sector will be expected.


Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Canadian Current Account Deficit Q2 - $2.33 billion over consensus | StatsCan Releases Balance of Payments

Just out Canada's Q2 Current account deficit coming in at $15.33 Billion, well over the $13 billion consensus

The full report is posted on the StatsCan website: Canada's balance of international payments
Also posted on www.bloomberg.com : Canada Second Quarter Current Account Report Text


 The obvious culprit is the Canadian dollar which has been staying north of the parity mark for some time.


Above is the CADUSD over the same period of time as the Current Account chart above 2007 - Q2 2011.  A definitive break in correlation occurs around Q1 2009, leading to a persistent downward pressure over the past 2 years.



Another interesting chart is Canada's Foreign Direct Investment

Q2 brought us the highest level of Acquisition of Direct Investment Interest since Q1 of 2008.


Consumer Confidence Report - Big Miss - Employment Situation Friday



PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Confidence - Level59.5 59.2 52.5 45.0  to 59.0 44.5 

Released on 8/30/2011 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2011

From Bloomberg : Economic Calender 

As expected in yesterday's post : Big week - A slew of economic data this week will make markets rocky

Consumer Confidence released today at 10am was a huge miss.  The other piece of economic data to watch out for comes in Friday which is the employment situation.

A Recession is looking ever more likely as the economic data has been confirming the stock market plunge over the past couple months.

Big week - A slew of economic data this week will make markets rocky

The big number will be the employment report coming out Friday.
Bloomberg economic calendar has every major event this week listed with general consensus figures.


Last weeks two misses:

PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR1.3 %1.1 %0.7 % to 1.6 %1.0 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR2.3 %2.3 %2.3 % to 2.4 %2.4 %

 Released on 8/26/2011 8:30:00 AM For Q2p




PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Home Sales - Level - SAAR312 K300 K313 K302 K to 330 K298 K
 Released on 8/23/2011 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2011






Zerohedge has a great summery of this weeks events: How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number

The chart most relevant to the Economic Data August 29 - September 2