Market Scheming

Monday, August 30, 2010

Bears still in town?! and Platinum!!


So the market on Friday had a big day up on the GDP revision.  Today most of that gain was wiped out.  I do believe a decent bounce could occur at some point but I wouldn't want to play the counter trend right now.  Since at any point bad news hits it could trigger another day like this.  I still have 1/2 my s&P short position which i will hold until there is more of a direction that forms. The indicators are still pretty negative.  The Slow Stoch has come out of being embed and now are just over sold so that could result in a bounce.  My target is still at least 950, if not 850 in the S&P 500. 


My interest in metals has been grow with learning more different industries.  I am going to look at the Platinum chart and then a couple of small cap mining plays.


Something interesting about the metal investments.
"Investors need to remember that the new ETFs have different tax treatment than stock funds. From the prospectus for ETFS Physical Palladium Shares: “Under current law, gains recognized by individuals from the sale of ‘collectibles,’ including physical platinum, held for more than one year are taxed at a maximum federal income tax rate of 28%, rather than the 15% rate applicable to most other long-term capital gains.”"
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/etfblog/2010/01/08/first-platinum-palladium-etfs-begin-trading/

Interesting how there is more taxes on metals because they are not recognized as an investment by the US laws.  They are collectibles


The weekly looks interesting, in 2008  the market tanked alot.  Looks like a base is formed and it is just about to get over the last Moving average.  The slow stoch and the macd are bullish.  The MACD looks like it is about to turn bullish very shortly.

On the Daily.

All moving averages are right above this level and the Slow stoch is almost over bought.  However, the bullish tick in the MACD makes this very interesting.  When this triangle breaks it will more quickly, this can be seen by observing how the bollinger bands are narrowing in. 

Lets see how some Mining companies look.
This stock is starting to chew through these moving averages.  Getting above the 50% retracement could be very bullish.  A run up to the 2.05 to 2.15 level is quite possible at this point.
The Slow stoch is close to being oversold and the macd downward momentum is decreasing which means a positive tick up is quite likely at this point.  Getting above that 20 and 50 MA would be huge for this base to remain.  If I were to get into this stock looking at a break above the 20/50 MA (1.89) as entry then a stop loss 1.73 (Aggressive),  1.78 (conservative)


If i sell the remaining shares I have in the inverse ETF for S&P I will consider picking up this stock and maybe this other one.

 

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