Market Scheming

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

S&P patterns and predictions

So here is my doom and gloom view of the charts Top chart is a close up of current situation and where break downs are likely to occur.  And the Bottom chart is the overall picture of our situation dated back to the beginning of this bull market.


I am going to call this Head and shoulders pattern on the purple line being the neck tie.  The right shoulder could get to the 200 MA or it could keen at the 20 MA or even the light blue triangle top.  But when it breakdown if the purple line is broken the S&P should be droping close to 1000- 1020 range.  May be lower.  These are key trends coming to an end.  If the s&p moves up it will likely mover to the 1130 area before meeting heavy resistances.
The Slow stock is just on 20 so barely oversold.   but MACD is showing a slight change in momentum.  So I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more upside before we begin to break down again.



On the longer term chart, you can see if the yellow line breaks then we are in that previous head and shoulders breakage range in early July.  That would then become quite strong resistance.  A break of the white neck tie I would call as the new Head and shouders pattern with the right shoulder being completed again.  The A wave correction could have been a zig zag ABC, then the start of the B wave was the most recent top and the C wave should be lower than the A wave which would be 950 range.

So expect this market to break down.  Some interesting news that will be coming out that might have a very large impact on the markets if they revise it is the GDP numbers.  This happens on the 28th of this month.  So keep your eyes peeled for this news.

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