Down day to start the week.

The S&P was down 1% today, which was expected since there was a strong 3 day rally.  Is this a pause day or a trend reversal is the real question.  I believe that any down movements can cause a break down in the markets with the right catalyst since the over all trend is still down.  So I am not bullish until the 200 MA is cleared but on a short term basis.  As breaks above the 200MA since May flash crash have not been sustained but a short term rally would be expected.  For a down trend to be confirmed, breaks below the 20 / 50 MA are the areas to look.
Here is a daily chart of today's action.

The MACD has a higher positive tick which indicates bullish momentum however, the MACD value is below the Zero line which is bearish, I like to view Histogram as the short term trend and the MACD value as the longer term trend.  So this would be considered a counter trend move.

The Slow stoch is still over bought.  I mentioned this on Monday, the slope of the yellow line as it enters the 80+ territory seems to matter.  Also the longer the yellow line is overbought and the white line is <80 the more downward pressure there is on the market.

See how that upper purple trend line I had drawn in held so well today?  The open was a gap down below the trend line and then a constant move south.  The candle stick formation is a bearish continuation patterns.

Overall Expectations:
- Bounce Can continue but not for to much longer.
- I do expect the upper purple trend line to hold, however if broken the 200 MA will offer up pretty heavy resistance.

Positions: I am not playing the market either way right now as i am currently in long positions in the metal market (3 junior mining companies SBB, HRG, ELR on the tsx).  I have about 8-10 mining companies I follow and attempt to determine breaks outs.  Silver is on the verge of breaching $20/oz, and close to its recent high of $23ish.   Target for silver I believe is the $32 mark possibly

SBB update.
I have been waiting to see a breakout of this stock for the past few trading days, I added to my position a couple of day ago because this stock has been really strong and in my opinion has not priced in the recent silver and gold moves.  Well the break out started friday and has continued today.  I took profits on 1/2 my position today at 3.89, this was at the end of the day.  The logic behind this is to lock in at least half your profits on big moves because there is a potential of a reversal the next day, Just like the stock markets today.  I was thinking about taking profits at 3.94 but saw a touch of 4.00 and held a bit to long.

The Slow Stoch looks like it could embed and the MACD is position and a positive tick on the histogram confirms a shift in momentum.  I believe this move could be mirrored by the August 3rd move where there was a sharp increase sideways consolidation then a second move up.  I will be looking to add to my position hopefully below the 3.89 mark, I may look for an entry at 3.81



I exited my GPR position even though I expect the stock to continue to rise because I wanted to purchase the stock i analyzed Monday HRG on the TSX.  This stock I believe has just broke out I got in at 1.02 and it ended the day at 1.05 up 9.4% today.  I expect this to continue to break out over this week.

The MACD has a strong up tick today, and the slow stoch is overbought but could be embedding.  Again i will mention about the slope of the yellow line, this stock unlike the over all markets I believe has a better chance of an embedded slow stochs which means the up trend is locked in and strong moves up usually continue until the yellow line breaks below the 80.  The slope is shallow and the white line is very close to the 80 mark as well, which translates to a potential lock in.

I called Monday a breakout of .99 to 1.01 area will cause a breakout, and we had a run up to 1.09.  I may look to add to my position possibly at the 1.02 mark (which is where i entered today).