Market Scheming

Monday, October 11, 2010

Oil entry and CIENA


I entered a position in oil a couple days back at the purple line in the chart above.  The Stop would be above the cyan line as it is above the a previous high. I am using an ETF HOD by Horizon BetaPro.

The MACD histogram is rolling over in oil, indicating that momentum is fading.  Watch for a cross of the MACD line for confirmation of a sell signal.

The Slow Stochastics has failed to embed and fell below the 80 line today. This signals the momentum is down.  The next quality buy opportunity would be when the yellow line gets below the 20 line and breaks above it as it did the last week in August.

I have a horizontal trend line that I believe will be retested within a month or so.  The other trend line I believe if broke will result into a move down to 72-73 level.




I would like to point out a bearish divergence on CIEN.  This indicates that the momentum has shifted bearish however, price action is still remaining neutral to bullish.  It is then expected for price action to drop at least to 14.88.   In addition the top trend line was put in at the beginning of October and has again came into play today when the price retreated after touching it.  The candle stick formation is again a shooting star which is a sell signal.  Confirmation tomorrow would indicate a reversal on this stock.   It appears that the 20 MA is providing support and the trend line sloping down is the resistance.  This stock has to break out of this within the week.


Well technicals proved to be correct on Ciena. it broke down today and as of 11:30, A bear flag pattern has been created.  I would expect a break down unless the markets magically surge on no news which seems to be the norm.  The news article that caused Ciena's gap down was the issuance of new debt. 

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