Market Scheming

Thursday, December 9, 2010

S&P Elliot Wave analysis - Irregular Correction & EUR/USD divergence


I will start off with mentioning some videos that have provided an interesting count.



Target guidelines from the following was used:
http://www.esignalcentral.com/university/get/getManual/eSignal_Manual_ch9.pdf

Starting with a longer term chart


So Above is the daily chart.  It is a bit hectic, however, I didn't want to erase everything when zooming out.
Man thing to note is where we are in the wave count at this scale.   August 2010  terminated Wave 1.  I did some research on Andrew's Pitchfork  Video of action / reaction lines Here

Based on pitchfork time projection, mixed with Fib levels and elliot wave, a short term projected target of 1145 - 1155.  The big red dot.

Wave yellow B touched the 61.8% retractment of the breakdown of the markets in 2008.  This point a short term top, in my opinion until it is taken out. 

Once Wave 4 completes, wave 5 should go to modest new highs before terminating, leading the way for a strong down move in the indexes.

Closer look at the price target on a hourly chart.



On the shorter term count, the cyan count seems to have terminated, making the high 1235.

With a clear impulse wave down off the 1235 mark, the correction can be seen showing a bearish divergence.

So to sum it up, we might be about to continue a 4 wave down on longer term chart.  Which means news highs are expected, by next February.  Price target of 1255-1260 on the wave 5 up.
On the shorter term, it appears our irregular correction has just put in a B wave.  This means we have entered into a C wave down that should take out the A Wave at 1175.  With the target of 1145-1155 this price target is also 1.62 x Wave A which satisfies the fib targets of a Wave C.

From the PDF above on Elliot wave here is a picture of a irregular flat.

See more here



Just a EUR/USD update.  Bearish Divergence based on the purple lines.
Expect to see the Euro fall against the greenback.  Price should breach 1.26 if the divergence is to play out.


No comments:

Post a Comment