Market Scheming

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Markets get shaken up - a Look at SPY


Using the SPY as a proxy for the S&P500 volume.  It has been noted by many that any time there is real volume spikes they only occur on sell days. And strong sell days.  2% today.

Just like in January when Egypt's situation spooked the markets, it is hard to call this the turning point.  However, I believe that these type of strong sell days demonstrate how fragile the US markets are.  It should be noted that the MACD crossover has occurred and the Slow stoch has broke its embedded nature.  However, technical analysis seems to have lost its role in the current market.  That happens when billions of dollars are pumped into the market bi-daily.

Gold / Silver had a correction today which was expected as they have had huge gains. Silver is still holding above $33 which is the highest point since last year.  All eyes seem to be turning to $50 silver as the next likely stop.

What is interesting to note is that the metal markets and the stock markets have been rising together and today they fell together however, this correlation doesn't hold always. The metal markets have corrected the past 2 months from their highs leading me to be more bullish on them over the general market simply because the market has just gone straight up without digesting gains.  This means that when sell pressure flocks to the markets a deep correction could be in the works baring any QE3 talk... June is the end date to the QE2 program so expect discussions to get heated as this deadline approaches.

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