Market Scheming

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

View on GOLD, correction still in place, Wait and see mode


My current view on gold is above. It is my guess that when summer arrives gold will be breaking new highs. I expect that the 200 MA which coincides with the bottom of the trend channel, will be touch before we start seeing some continued upside.  
The MACD is an momentum oscillator, the way I read the MACD is that when the blue line is below the 0 level the main trend momentum is negative.  However, short term trend is governed by the histogram.  The Histogram is the distance between the blue line (MACD line) and the white line (9 day moving average).  Currently the histogram appears to be bottoming out, indicating that a bounce is more likely to occur.  A traditional "buy" signal from the MACD technical indicator is a cross over of the blue and white lines.  It appears downside momentum is decreasing, represented by the smaller negative ticks on the histogram.


The Slow Stoch appears as if momentum has shifted to the upside.  The stock was recent over sold so expect gold to catch a bid.  

I am considering a options trading strategy called a Cover call. 

From Wikipedia:
"A covered call is a financial market transaction in which the seller of call options owns the corresponding amount of the underlying instrument, such as shares of a stock or other securities. If the trader buys the underlying instrument at the same time as he sells the call, the strategy is often called a "buy-write" strategy. In equilibrium, the strategy has the same payoffs as writing a put option."

From Investopedia:

"What Does Covered Call Mean?
An options strategy whereby an investor holds a long position in an asset and writes (sells) call options on that same asset in an attempt to generate increased income from the asset. This is often employed when an investor has a short-term neutral view on the asset and for this reason hold the asset long and simultaneously have a short position via the option to generate income from the option premium.

This is also known as a "buy-write"."

Therefore if I have this expectation of how gold prices around to go, you could purchase Stock now, and write covered call options at or close to the peak of the current upside move.  Ideal case is that you sell a call option that is just in the money, with the expectation that the price is going to decline.  Since the option is already in the money, a large premium will be absorbed.


More likely, selling an options contract that is relatively distance and choose the beginning of
April as the time duration of the option.

Taking an options and derivatives course in University now so I am excited to get a more theoretical background in options trading.

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