Market Scheming

Thursday, May 19, 2011

UPDATE: 5 day Moving avg holds - End of Day SLV and S&P 500 charts

Just to update my last post with the end of day charts.  As expected the 5 day MA held.  The S&P500 and SLV made their way higher to close.
Using the SPY as a proxy for the S&P500 to show volume:

The yellow line is the 390 period moving average which equals a 5 day moving average on the 5 min chart.  After the test just after 11 am, the market rallied quickly higher, pulled back, then closed up for the day.  This is a positive sign that the short - mid term trend change that happened on the 17th might be continuing for the next couple of weeks.


Above chart is the daily for the SPY.  Since the January 10th, 2011, the market has been trading sideways.  Today the SPY has broken above the top of the channel.  What is more encouraging is that the momentum indicators show a shift as well.  Slow Stochastics is pointing up indicating a increase in upside momentum as well as the MACD that has held the 0 level and is looking as if a "buy" signal cross over will occur early next week. 
I am not long term bullish on the Stock market, as the economic situation is unsustainable, however, QE3 will enviably give the market a boost.  However... If Elliott wave count that is generally accepted is true, then the impulse wave off of the July 2010 lows is in its final leg to the upside.  If there was a 32.8% retracment even from the current level, a drop to 121 would occur on the SPY.  Another way to look at this is that this entire year has been a correction through time and thus upside movement would be a confirmed trend change leading to another impulse.  Regardless, stay vigilant and ensure risk management via stops.


Silver has followed a similar pattern with a test of the 5 Day MA happening just after 11.  The SLV closed basically flat on the day.  This is to the surprise of the sellers between 10-11 am.  The bottom fell out of silver but the 5 Day MA held quite nicely.



As you can see, Silver had a substantial retracement from the highs of around $50.  This was not unexpected, as the price moved from around $17 to $50 in about 9 months.  The Slow stoch looks like it could pop up however it would be considered "locked in" at this stage until it can get above the 20 level.  The MACD is less encouraging that the S&P 500 as the MACD line is under the 0 level but is currently looking as it a bullish cross over will occur next week or the week after.



No comments:

Post a Comment