Market Scheming

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Is it Wheat's Time? DAG ETN Analysis | Agriculture Sector poised to make a move | QE3 likely to push the agricultural sector higher

Read an interesting article name: A recipe for CWB failure
CWB referring to the Canadian Wheat Board, and the mention of failure relates to the Vote on September 9th, 2011.

From the Article:
The CWB's board of directors will respect the results of this plebiscite. If a majority of farmers wants to end the single desk for barley or wheat, we will actively support the transition to an open market. I am calling on Minister Gerry Ritz and the Government of Canada to also respect farmers' wishes. 
Another piece of interesting news in the agricultural space: Crop year a difficult one says CWB president by Glen Hallick.

From the Article:

"The 2010 growing season saw record rainfall levels that left millions of unseeded acres, leaving a small crop with one of the lowest quality profiles we've ever faced," White said. "This was frustrating for farmers and posed difficult marketing challenges, made worse by grain-movement issues that stalled farmer deliveries and affected the supply chain for much of the year."
...
Overall all-wheat production grown in the 2010-2011 crop year was down by 3.3 MT to 21 MT. Meanwhile all-barley production declined by 1.9 MT to seven MT.
The CWB forecast for 2011-2012 calls for 17.4 MT of wheat, 3.9 MT of durum and 8 MT of barley. The prediction includes the estimated six million acres that went unseeded this year because of spring flooding.

DAG - 2x Bull ETN - Agriculture - Wheat, Corn, Sugar, Soybean

I am looking at the next pull back as an entry opportunity.  The three standard correction are on the chart above.  Most likely the 38.2% retracement level is what we will see within the next couple of weeks if the top is truly in. If not, these levels will need to be recalculated.  The MACD looks to be rounding off signally a slight pull back.

A very bullish chart is the Weekly DAG


Hence why any pull back will be an excellent low risk high reward trade entry.  If this is the beginning of a new up-leg much higher prices in the agricultural sector will be expected.


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