Market Scheming

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Will S&P follow the recent past?


Here is a daily chart of the S&P500.  After the May flash crash, the index has had a hard time holding the 200 MA.  What has happened is sideways action until a break down. The top around June 16th-19th is an example and the top starting August 2nd.  A series of DOJI candles form then a breakdown.  Our current action is very similar, we had traded sideways for 5 days.  The MACD shows a slowing of momentum.  The real question is, will the pull back slice through the 20 /50 MA and continue to new lows or will this pull back just be the start of forming higher lows and higher highs.  The FED meets I believe the 21st to discuss their next course of actions.  A rumor was QE2 will be announced then however, unless the markets are falling QE2 I don't think would be justified as it would put more pressure on the bond market.

Friday Gold continue to make new highs.


On Friday the 1280 mark was breached.  So a 1300 gold close over the next 2 weeks is not out of the realm of possibilities.  I still do believe there is a pull back in the works, but with growing uncertainty and possibility  of QE2 looming, gold has continued to be bullish.  The MACD has a larger positive tick on the histogram so momentum is continuing up.

As always, the next week will be quite interesting.  I was let down by quadruple witching week last week.  The volatility was not as intense as I expected.

Check out this article on how the ECB on Friday intervened in Ireland's bond market 

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