Market Scheming

Thursday, November 18, 2010

S&P via SDS entry


This is SDS on a 1 minute chart.  Main reason for this chart is to notice the volume.  At the beginning of the day there was strong selling however, after that you can see the majority of volume is buy volume.  Buy volume here = sell volume in the S&P 500.   

Looking at the swing higher around 2:30pm, the price it touched was 26.55.  Therefore my buy stop entry was at 26.56.   The price coincidentally closed at 26.56 also.

lets see this on a5 minute chart

Massive drop, was equivalent to approximately 20 point move in the S&P 500.  What levels I was watching was the 1197.30 on the S&P which is the 20 daily MA.  Also the 200 week MA sits at 1190.98 which is approximately equal to 26.89 level on the SDS.  This is a key to watch breaks of that could send this market substantially lower.  However, this weeks candle stick does appear to be a hammer formation which would indicate a bottoming at this level.  So tomorrow is very very key.  In addition it is options expiration, so  expect games to be played.  For example, people that were holding call options that expired this friday, they have either bailed due to the break down at the beginning of the week, the question is have they reloaded up today?  Also people that jumped on the short wagon at the beginning of the week probably have bailed today because of the massive up move.  This whipsaw is used to flush out "weak" hands during the week. This could have been the bounce that should be shorted which I am doing now, however, next week I think a rally week could be possible, but I will save my predictions until tomorrow has closed.

I made some interday plays on edr, broke even on these as I should have been quick to take profits when I had the chance.

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