Market Scheming

Monday, January 10, 2011

AUDJPY slugish, look for a strong move within the next couple of weeks

Up or Down is the real question.   I think the only way to trade this is to wait on it for some breaks of key levels.


Using Andrew's pitchfork, I have drawn in some channels. Any break below this channel would result in heavy selling, note that the price action would be below the 20 and 50 MA in this case.

At this moment i think the Slow Stoch is important.  Watching for breaks below the 80 level, which would break the embed nature of the trend.  In that case expect more volatility / pull back.  The consolidation period looks like it is coming to an end, so expect a bigger move one way or another during this upcoming week. 

A failure to hold the 61.8% retracement would be a decent entry into the short side of this market, with a stop just above the 81.93 level (61.8%).

Options expiration week Jan 22 as mentioned in previous posts is suspected of being very volatile.  

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