Market Scheming

Monday, January 10, 2011

Poor Entry on FAZ, but trade still likely

This is FAZ the financial sector 3x bear ETF. 

Entry at $9.18 but as you can see the price dropped by $0.18 by the end of the day.  Entry was made based on a Buy stop set at $9.18, 1 cent after a key resistance level.  Looking at the 15 min chart below you can see the price was a bit over extended when it broke through the 9.17 level. 

Exit will be at the 9.69 level 1 cent below a key 9.70 which is a swing low Dec 13th. 
The Chart above shows a increase in volume on the 2.39% gain.  This is some confirmation the move could lead to continued upside.


Closer look at the daily and the MACD / Slow Stoch.

Looks like I jumped the gun on this trade but it is likely the Slow Stoch will get above the 20 level and a positive MACD histogram tick tomorrow.

Looking at the 15 min chart


Looking at Fridays volume distribution, heavy buy volume with unimpressive sell volume coming in at the later stages of the day, as price deceased.  The slow stoch is signally an oversold condition indicating that a bounce is likely monday.

I plan on picking up a small position in out of the money call options (Strike 8) on a JASO for Jan 22nd expiry as a hedge against this position.

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